Delphi Studies
Delphi studies are qualitative, multistage interview procedures that provide the best possible estimates of future events, trends, and technological developments.
Surveying Experts
In order to do this, a group of experts is presented with a list of questions relating to the relevant specialist area.
The responses, estimates, results, etc. that are received in writing are summarised as core statements, though at the same time mention is also made of diverging opinions.
In the second phase, the experts are once again sent these results, together with further questions. They comment upon the previous summaries and respond to the more in-depth questions. As a result of this process, the distillation of the expert opinions that have been gathered is successively elaborated in an interactive procedure. The quality of prediction that is thereby achievable is extremely high, and has been successfully proven in countless studies.
This controlled opinion-forming process usually occurs in several stages. The end result is an edited group opinion that contains the statements themselves plus information about the range of existing opinions.
Execution as Online Research
The online despatch of questionnaires that is possible today means that Delphi studies can be conducted far more rapidly than is the case if they are sent on paper.
Particularly those top-class experts one needs within the framework of Delphi surveys are frequently on the move a great deal, and only rarely have access to their ordinary mail.
Under these circumstances, a Delphi study conducted via paper and pencil can drag on for several months. Sending the survey to experts online via e-mail can bring major benefits in terms of time, since despite the fact that they're constantly travelling, these people are generally online every day, and are thus able to take part in the study regardless of where they happen to be.
Moreover, many experts find an online survey less inhibiting than having to answer open questions in writing.